Fady Noun From L'orient Le Jour

Aoun en Syrie : plus de vent que de pluie…

L'orient le Jour

11/12/2008

La tournée supermédiatisée de Michel Aoun en Syrie, terre de saint Maron et « berceau du christianisme », continue d’alimenter la chronique, l’opinion restant très partagée sur son opportunité, alors que le contentieux syro-libanais reste si lourdement chargé. Le fait que le chef du CPL ait rendu compte de sa tournée au chef de l’État a adouci quelque peu les réactions, dans la mesure où cette démarche laisse penser que Michel Aoun respecte malgré tout les institutions nationales. 
Toutefois, le Bloc national a réagi violemment à l’information selon laquelle un émissaire du général Aoun se rendrait incessamment à Bkerké pour informer le patriarche des résultats de sa visite, M. Carlos Eddé allant même jusqu’à demander au chef de l’Église maronite de ne pas le recevoir... Un geste improbable, en totale contradiction avec la tradition patriarcale maronite. 
Ce sont principalement les milieux chrétiens qui se sont offusqués de l’étalage médiatique de la visite en Syrie. Par contre, ce sont surtout les milieux sunnites qui ont réagi à l’idée d’un amendement de l’accord de Taëf lancée par Aoun à partir de Damas. 
La réaction la plus mesurée et la mieux argumentée est venue de l’ancien Premier ministre Nagib Mikati, qui a rappelé au chef du CPL qu’un amendement de ce type relève des questions consensuelles qui doivent faire l’unanimité des communautés libanaises, et qu’une majorité parlementaire, aussi large soit-elle, ne suffit pas à légitimer un amendement, surtout s’il concerne les prérogatives respectives des trois premières présidences. 
En tout état de cause, les observateurs estiment que, une fois retombé le côté sensationnel de la visite, la tournée du général Aoun en Syrie ne pourra faire ombrage ni à la présidence de la République ni au rôle de Bkerké. Du reste, l’échange d’ambassadeurs entre le Liban et la Syrie, sur le point de se concrétiser, marquera la suprématie des processus institutionnels. Notons aussi, sur ce plan, la visite de 24 heures que le chef de l’État effectuera, dimanche, en Jordanie. 
Côté international, la situation au Liban continue d’être suivie de près. À ce sujet, et à la veille de la reprise du dialogue national (22 décembre), on annonce que le président Nicolas Sarkozy est attendu au Liban le 5 décembre pour une visite de 24 heures. Selon une source diplomatique, citée par notre correspondant diplomatique, Khalil Fleyhane, cette visite illustre l’inquiétude que la France nourrit à l’égard d’un dialogue national en difficulté. 
Reçu par la secrétaire d’État Condoleezza Rice, à Washington, le ministre Nassib Lahoud, en tournée aux États-Unis, a cru comprendre, pour sa part, que l’évolution de la situation régionale ne se répercutera pas négativement sur le Liban. 
Enfin, l’actualité locale a été marquée, durant le long congé de l’Adha, par la visite de l’ancien président américain Jimmy Carter, dont l’association souhaite pouvoir suivre le bon déroulement des prochaines élections. Le ministre de l’Intérieur a démenti hier qu’une décision ait déjà été prise en ce sens, mais affirmé que son ministère poserait les critères qui qualifieraient toute association qui voudrait être présente sur le terrain, en juin prochain.

Sami Moubayed From Middle East Times

Lebanon's Aoun in a Syrian gambit

Middle East Times

04/12/2008

When I lived in Lebanon in the 1990s, the streets of what was once-called East Beirut were covered with graffiti saying "Aoun is coming back!" 

This referred to former army commander and prime minister Michel Aoun, who was ousted from Baabda Palace, the official residence of the president, by the Syrian army in 1990. Last year, the same streets were filled with colorful orange posters saying "Aoun for president". 
Aoun returned to Lebanon after 15 years in exile on May 7, 2005. The Syrian army had left a month before and Aoun had marketed himself as the man who led the ejection of Syria through United 
Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, which demanded an end to its decades-long occupation of Lebanon. 
He ran for parliament in 2005, won with a landslide victory, and ran for president in 2007, but was defeated by current President Michel Suleiman in a parliament vote in May this year. 
Aoun had returned to Lebanon on the offensive, hateful of everyone and everything that kept him in exile for so long, and promising destruction of the existing order and sweet revenge. The Beirut he returned to in 2005 was very different from the war-torn city he had left behind. 
It did not bear the hallmarks of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister assassinated in 2005, yet, all the actors of Beirut 1990 are still there and most of them have been more than troubled by his comeback. 
They were even more alarmed by the 73-year-old's groundbreaking five-day visit to Damascus, which started on December 3. It is purportedly to signal that "the general", as his supporters call him, has finally turned a new page with his former enemies in Damascus. 
At Beirut airport on his return on May 2005, Aoun told the masses, most of whom were too young to remember the civil war, that Lebanon would never be governed again by "political feudalism" and a "religious system that dates back to the 19th century". This, his first encounter with the press and well-wishers, was less than diplomatic, when annoyed with all the commotion the ex-general barked at those welcoming him, claiming they were noisy. 

He then called for an end to the "old fashioned prototypes which represent the old bourgeoisie which persists without any questioning", effectively a promise to strike back at Lebanon's entire political establishment. 
His appearance at Damascus Airport this week was very different, there he was seen smiling to the TV cameras, aware of the shock waves he was sending through the pro-West March 14 Coalition which was no doubt watching from Beirut. 
Aoun’s Syria trip is scheduled to include a visit to the "Street called Straight", the Roman street that runs from east to west in the heart of old Damascus; churches throughout the Syrian capital's Bab Touma neighborhood; and the Grand Umayyad Mosque that was visited by Pope John Paul II in 2001. 

He is also slated to speak to students at universities, and tour Christian villages in the countryside, where a grassroots welcome is awaiting him. Although officially only a party leader (the Free Patriotic Movement) and member of parliament, who commands the largest Christian bloc, he was welcomed at Damascus International Airport by Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad, and had a high profile audience with President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday. 

"We spoke with our hearts and minds ... so there remains no trace of a past in which there are many painful things," said Aoun after meeting Assad, in reference to his former "war of liberation" against Syria. "I left behind the past when I came to Syria," he noted. "We want to build the future, not dwell on the past." 
Aoun added, "What was once forbidden has now become halal - very halal," claiming that his visit turns a new page in Syrian-Lebanese relations. 

Before returning to Lebanon in 2005, Aoun had promised a "tsunami" in Lebanese politics. His appearance in Damascus on Wednesday goes some way to achieving that. The average age of his supporters when he returned was 20, young men and women who were easily enchanted by the fiery speeches Auon gave from exile in France. 
A generation hungry for reform and hope, they supported Aoun as an exiled leader. They rooted for him again in 2007 when he was running for president - a job he has coveted since 1988. But Aoun understood early on since his return that Christian support alone is no longer enough to govern Lebanon. The nation changed dramatically both during and after the civil war, and no president could be voted into power if he were not supported by the Shi'ite majority, which is loyal to Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah. 

Aoun last year made a pact with Nasrallah, pledging to support Hezbollah and its war against Israel, and to run as running mates for the elections in 2009. 

A long road for Aoun 
Aoun was born in 1935 to a poor family in Haret Hraik, a Shi'ite neighborhood that is currently a stronghold for Hezbollah. Aoun attended Catholic schools, lived with a religious family, but declared years later that he "never differentiated between Ali and Peter, or between Hasan and Michel". 
One of the first questions fired at him by a journalist on his return to Lebanon was whether he intended to visit his native neighborhood, which is swarming with Shi'ite warriors today, and meet with Nasrallah. He replied affirmatively, but this was long before he made his now famous pact with Hezbollah. 
Aoun finished high school in 1955, enrolled at the Military Academy and graduated in 1958, while a popular uprising was raging in Lebanon against then-president Camille Chamoun. Aoun watched attentively as the Lebanese army, which he was entering, remained loyal to its president. 

When Aoun was 40, his country descended into civil war, as the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) of Yasser Arafat fought with the Muslims of Lebanon against the Maronite forces of Pierre Gemayel, who were backed by Syria. By the late 1970s, the Lebanese army had fractured along sectarian lines, yet Aoun, having learned from the 1958 experience, remained loyal to the central government. In the early 1980s, he became head of the "defense brigade" of the Lebanese army, a unit separating East and West Beirut. In 1982, he was involved in fighting against the Israeli army that occupied Beirut. 
That same year, Aoun created the 8th Brigade, which fought the Syrian army in the Souk al-Gharb pass overlooking Beirut. In June 1984, a reconciliation conference was held for all warring parties in Switzerland - brokered by Hariri - and army commander Ibrahim Tannous was fired and replaced by Aoun. 

Aoun complied, but took no part in politics, giving no press interviews between 1984 and 1988. In September 1988, 15 minutes before the end of his term, president Amin Gemayel appointed Aoun prime minister, breaching the National Pact of 1943, which said that a prime minister had to be a Muslim Sunni, and the president's office could be occupied exclusively by a Maronite Christian. 
Lebanon's Muslim prime minister, Salim al-Hoss, who had taken over after the assassination of prime minister Rashid Karameh, refused to step down, resulting in two Lebanese governments. Aoun's team reigned from Baabda Palace. 
When he came to power, Aoun only controlled limited areas of East Beirut.To establish himself as a cross-confessional leader, Aoun began his war on the Lebanese Forces (LF), a Maronite militia headed by Samir Gagegea, who is currently his main rival in the Lebanese Christian community. 
Aoun ordered 15,000 of his troops into action and wrestled the port of Beirut from the LF.He shelled entire neighborhoods of East Beirut and infuriated the Christians of Lebanon, who to date had kept East Beirut quiet and safe. On March 14, 1989, Aoun declared his "war of liberation" against Syria.
He even opened channels with Syria's arch enemies, such as Iraqi president Saddam Hussein and Arafat, who described him as a "sword of nationalism" in Lebanon. Aoun finally agreed to the ceasefire proposed by the Arab League in September 1989, but refused to endorse the Taif Accord of Saudi Arabia of October 1989, claiming it did not call for the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon. 
Aoun's "rebellion" ended rapidly when in August 1990, his friend Saddam invaded Kuwait. The United States, eager to defeat the Iraqi dictator, wanted Arab support in Operation Desert Storm. 
It found no better way to achieve that than through an alliance with Syria for the liberation of Kuwait. Syria's late president Hafez al-Assad sent his army to the Arabian desert, and in reward the US gave him a green light to bring the Aoun saga to an end. On the morning of October 13, 1990, the Syrian army launched a massive operation on Baabda Palace and areas of East Beirut controlled by Aoun. The defeated general fled to the French Embassy in Beirut then moved to Paris, where president Francois Mitterrand gave him political asylum. 

Aoun remained in exile during the 1990s, when Hariri ruled Beirut, along with the Syrian-backed president Elias Hrawi and Nabih Berri, the speaker of parliament. It was these Lebanese leaders who prevented his return to Lebanon because they feared his wrath for having obediently worked with Syria for so long. Hariri was killed on February 14, 2005, and after Aoun’s return three months later, he refused to attribute his comeback to the murder of Hariri, but rather to his 14-year crusade from Paris. 
The new Aoun was older, wiser and angrier than ever before. He wanted to take revenge on all who had wronged him since 1990. There was no sense in taking revenge on the Syrians, he argued, since they had left Lebanon. He instead focused his anger on March 14 leaders like Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora, and Walid Jumblatt, the current leader of the Druze community. 
He failed to become president in 2007, but the March 14 coalition said it would never accept him - for different reasons. Muslim politicians like Hariri and Siniora feared a strong Christian president like Aoun would overshadow their Sunni prime minister. The same applied to Jumblatt, and Gagegea, who saw himself - being the other Christian heavyweight - as the best candidate for the Lebanese presidency. 
To understand Aoun one must understand how faithful his supporters have been in backing him. When he wanted to fight the Syrians, they were anti-Syrian to the bone. When he wanted to ally himself with Hezbollah, they became strong supporters of what the general was telling them to do. They support anything he tells them. It's that simple. Such strict adherence to a political leader who is not leading a confessional group and one who is switching sides so very dramatically is rare even in a country like Lebanon. 
Aoun has no states supporting him or furnishing him with money, like Saad al-Hariri, the politician son of the assassinated premier, and Saudi Arabia, or Hasan Nasrallah and Iran. He does not hail from a traditional political family, like Maronite politician Suleiman Franjiyeh, Druze leader Jumblatt, or former Sunni prime minister Omar Karameh. With no state behind him, and no political family on his shoulders, it is remarkable that the general has survived so long in the patron-client system of the Middle East. 
He is now bracing himself for the upcoming parliamentary elections of 2009, which he plans on tackling with Hezbollah. Aoun realizes that he cannot rule Lebanon without them. For their part, Hezbollah leaders realize that they need someone like Aoun to legitimize the "arms of the resistance" among Lebanese Christians. Nasrallah is popular with Christians of south Lebanon but until Aoun came along in 2005, there were Christians in Mount Lebanon who frowned on his military tactics - especially after the liberation of South Lebanon in 2000 - claiming that Lebanon was being made to pay the price for Hezbollah’s war with Israel. 
Depending on who you talk to in Lebanon, Christians are either still enchanted with "the general" or have began to hate him, because of his alliance with Hezbollah and his latest cozying up with Iran and Syria. Shortly before his Damascus visit, Aoun landed in Tehran to meet with Iranian leaders - sending a strong message to Saudi Arabia, which supports March 14. A pragmatic man, he knows that all is fair in love and war; and all is justified in his quest to become president of Lebanon. 

Michael Young From Daily Star

Michel Aoun's minority package tour

Daily Star

04/12/2008

You have to hand it to Michel Aoun, he never goes half-way. Here was everyone else staying in Syria for a few hours, two days at the most, and here is Aoun opting for the full four-night, five-day holiday package tour, including visits to religious sites, open buffets, Damascus by night, and an audience with the dictator, all for the low price of his mortal soul. 

There will be much dispute over Aoun's choices as he "reconciles" with his old Syrian enemy - his partisans applauding the general, his adversaries finding fault. But a more obvious question is what does Aoun gain from this trip that he didn't have before embarking on the road to Damascus? And what does he lose? - assuming that many Lebanese, perhaps most, still believe that Syria was behind the killing of the former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, as well as of dozens of others beginning in 2005. 

To the first question, the easy explanation, an electoral one, is unconvincing on its own. If Aoun's gambit is that he has to become friendly with Syria to be assured that his candidates will be given more room on electoral lists in predominantly Shiite constituencies, as well as Jezzine, then he has already forfeited enough politically to achieve that. Rather, the general's deeper ambition (if "depth" can in any way reasonably be applied here) is to become the primary mediator between the Christians and Syria's regime. Aoun's immediate aim is to displace President Michel Sleiman from that role, but more generally to breathe life into a contentious notion associated with his principal Maronite political ally, Suleiman Franjieh, but also with Aoun's own son-in-law, Gebran Bassil: namely that Christians, in order to protect their community, have a long-term advantage in entering into a strategic regional alliance of minorities with the Shiites and Syria's ruling Alawites. 

If there are any doubts about this, the symbolism of Aoun's visit is there to dispel them. The point of the general's planed excursions to Christian shrines in Damascus is to show that Christians thrive under Bashar Assad. 

To the second question - what does Aoun have to lose by so flamboyantly settling his differences with a regime accused of systematic murder in the past three years? - the answer is: quite a lot. Through this gesture, the general has taken his followers farther than ever in their divorce from the Lebanese sectarian consensus. Aoun has repeatedly sold his alliance with Hizbullah as a successful effort to preserve that consensus following the 2005 Independence Intifada. That would only be true had Aoun remained a bridge between Sunnis and Shiites. Instead he took sides, and is now thumbing his nose at the Sunni community once more by effectively absolving the Syrian regime of guilt in the Hariri murder; or worse, making it plain that he cares little about that guilt. 

But it's the Christians who will ultimately have the most forceful say on Aoun's Damascus trip. And whichever way you cut it, most Christians do not share the general's views on an alliance of minorities, nor are they particularly eager to embrace the Assad regime, preferring a colder relationship of mutual respect. Aoun is under the impression that he can continue to manipulate Christian misgivings about the Sunnis to his advantage. However, those misgivings only have meaning in the context of domestic Lebanese affairs. Once the Christians see the general wanting to take the community into a regional confrontation with the Sunni Arab world, once they realize that Aoun's method for doing so is a partnership with a deeply mistrusted Syrian leadership and with Iran, their reaction will likely be one of suspicion, if only from a perspective of self-interest. 


Self-interest counts for a lot, but there is also the matter of principle. It sends a very different message when Lebanese officials, mandated by the government, meet with their Syrian counterparts, and when a parliamentarian like Michel Aoun does so. That's not to say that Aoun had no right to visit Damascus, only that by doing so outside the confines of formal state-to-state relations - the desirable framework for ties between Lebanon and Syria - he injects a form of unilateralism into his act that demonstrates he will ignore Syrian behavior in Lebanon, regardless of how it violates Lebanese sovereignty and United Nations resolutions. That's why Aoun's defending his visit as representing a new page in Syrian-Lebanese relations is so manifestly vain. Aoun claims to be representing all of Lebanon when he only truly represents himself. 

Why should that matter? Because it would have been useful, just this once, for the Lebanese to be united around their victims. Aoun's political career since his return to Lebanon has centered on a perpetual struggle against the legacy of Rafik Hariri, whom the general never forgave for having, in death, served as a mobilizing force against the Syrian presence. By transforming his stay in Syria into a grand tour, part political summit, part pilgrimage, by offering so large a dispensation to Bashar Assad and demanding nothing in exchange (except for what Assad will toss him by way of making the trip more palatable in Lebanon), Aoun has betrayed the memory of even those who sided with him in his darker moments: the soldiers who died for him on October 13, 1990, after Aoun had fled to the French Embassy and refused to issue them with an order to surrender; Gebran Tueni, who had his differences with the general, but always defended Aoun's partisans when they were arrested and mistreated by the Lebanese security services; Samir Kassir, who had engaged Aounist students at St. Joseph University and encouraged them in their fight against Syrian hegemony; Antoine Ghanem and Pierre Gemayel, who had, like Aoun, endured years of marginalization at Syrian hands. 

Egoism is sometimes a quality of great men. Aoun would agree after placing himself at the same altitude as Charles de Gaulle reconciling France with Konrad Adenauer's West Germany. But his is an egoism without a trace of greatness, without vision or a center of gravity. Aoun took the package tour of Syria, the one the budget tourists choose. He won't come away from the experience with his reputation enhanced.